The United Kingdom’s infamous new strain of COVID-19 has found its way into the United States – specifically, here in Oregon. A Multnomah County resident was found to not only have COVID-19, but the B.1.1.7 strain that was originally discovered in the U.K., back on Dec. 8. While it is not uncommon for viral infections to mutate, it has been speculated that the mutations this new strain has undergone could make situations in the U.S. more dire. 

While little is known presently about the new variant of the virus, it is believed to be more contagious than the current strain we have become more accustomed to. Estimates from healthline.com suggest that it could be up to 70% more contagious than what we have been experiencing thus far.

The fears of the possibility of higher contagion stem from the estimated 23 genetic alterations in this new strain, as suggested by M.D. Robert Bollinger in an article published by John Hopkins University. More precisely, the fears emerge from the location of the genetic changes, which can be found on the spike protein of the virus. These spike proteins are what allow the coronavirus to adhere to human cells, eventually leading to the allowance of transmission and infection. Having said that, the article did make it clear that the theory of higher contagion is just that: a theory that cannot be proven without further study. 

Also of note is the fact that it is not extremely uncommon for viruses to mutate. Many may think of the flu and the several stories of its mutations that can be read every year on the news. However, that is not to say there is nothing to worry about when it comes to the mutation of COVID-19 and the dangers that may accompany it.

Although it is more contagious, experts say there is little reason to believe that the new strain is inherently more dangerous. There does not appear to be evidence that the strains have extraneous symptoms that go beyond what has been documented from the original COVID-19 virus or that symptoms are more severe. 

“Currently, there is no evidence that these variants cause more severe illness or increased risk of death,” the Center for Disease Control (CDC ) stated in an article on their website. 

However, just because the strain does not seem to be related to a more severe illness, that does not definitively prove it is less dangerous. A more contagious disease, which has the potential to spread faster throughout our communities and country, could land more people in the hospital, which is an innate danger within itself. If our hospitals are running at full capacity and cannot accommodate the number of people who need treatment, the US could see an increase in deaths and death rates.

Along with the no apparent risk of worsening symptoms comes the good news that vaccines appear to still be equally effective. Both Moderna and Pfizer seem to think there is no reasonable doubt that the vaccines will be obsolete. The same rule goes for our current COVID-19 measures in place such as masks and social distancing. While the situation will have to be continuously monitored to ensure that both of these of these statements hold true, the evidence so far has allowed many to be hopeful that the new strain will not have detrimental effects. There also appears that there is a certain level of confidence that the vaccines could be adjusted to accommodate the new strains, if necessary. 

Despite all the good news, there comes one discouraging truth: the more contagious a virus, the higher the threshold for herd immunity. The threshold for this new strain lies at an estimated 85 percent, up from the 70 percent threshold assumed for the original strain. However, this is a mere estimation and not scientific fact. A higher percentage for herd immunity, thus requiring more vaccines, could result in an extended global recovery from the virus, although that is currently looking to be more on the possible side of the spectrum as opposed to the plausible side. 

The new strain’s appearance caused a swift lockdown to be implemented in the United Kingdom, and there has been criticism of the U.S. not following suit. The muted response so far seems to be on account of the strain not being extremely prominent within the states.

Between the appearance and faith in the evidence that the new strain is not deadlier, is still responsive to current COVID-19 procedures and that the vaccine will still be effective, some experts are not concerned about the new strain. Others, however, are critical of the US’s lack of action and concerned that a new strain could lead to a much more tedious recovery. On the other side of that coin comes the ideology that attributes the new strain to the natural order of pathogens that is to be expected.

 “New strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are detected every week,” Vice Chair of Medicine for Data Integrity and Analytics Stuart Ray stated. “Most come and go — some persist but don’t become more common; some increase in the population for a while, and then fizzle out. When a change in the infection pattern first pops up, it can be very hard to tell what’s driving the trend: changes to the virus, or changes in human behavior.”

While the new strain brings with it many fears, increasing levels of worry, and the news of a potentially extended recovery, it does not seem to bring the promise of disaster. Despite the fact it is a bit of a mixed bag, with some experts seeming very concerned and others not at all, it is still advisable we all remain vigilant during this period of uncertainty.