Update on 2020 presidential election
October 15, 2020
It’s time for an update on the 2020 presidential election, the election of a lifetime. Not only will it affect this country but it will affect the whole world. If you ever wondered what it’s like holding the world on your shoulders, this is what it feels like. Anyway… to the numbers.
The numbers of the national polls state that Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. is currently in the lead according to multiple sources. All the numbers you will see are from after the first debate. According to the BBC, Biden has a 10 percent lead on President Donald J. Trump: 52 percent of people say they’d vote Biden, whereas 42 percent said they’d vote for Trump as of Oct. 9. The Guardian says that Biden has a 9.5 percent lead over Trump, 50.7 percent Biden and 41.2 percent Trump. FiveThirtyEight ran 40,000 simulations based on national polls, current events and other sources to project the winner; according to their data, Biden wins 85 out of 100 times, Trump wins 14 out of 100 times, and one out of 100 times, the outcome would be a tie. Now Biden is not guaranteed to win; nor is Trump. A tie is possible but very unlikely.
These two candidates have different ways of campaigning due to COVID-19 that could affect the result of the election. Trump’s campaign strategy relies on the big in-person rallies like it was before COVID. Biden, on the other hand, doesn’t do this anymore. Rather, Biden does something that’s more COVID-aware, talking to a handful of voters in their yards, speaking to journalists or appearing at local businesses.
Door-to-door campaigning for the most part has been dominated by Trump due to Biden stopping all door knocking and relying on phone calls, texts and other media out fear of spreading the virus.
Fundraising-wise, Trump has stuck to in-person events, whereas Biden has shifted to virtual fundraisers. Note that the virtual fundraisers have not affected the flow of money for Biden, according to NPR.
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